Superforecasting

Name: Superforecasting
Brand: Crown
SKU: 01220389

Cargando comentarios…

$329

$237

Envío gratis siempre

Comentarios

Cargando el resumen…

Por favor, inicia sesión para escribir un comentario.

Cargando comentarios…

1230800Superforecastinghttps://www.gandhi.com.mx/superforecasting-1/phttps://gandhi.vtexassets.com/arquivos/ids/597596/5c2698b5-d8b4-4a17-8dab-260a31e26594.jpg?v=638335450743070000237329MXNCrownInStock/Ebooks/NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMISTThe most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahnemans Thinking, Fast and Slow.Jason Zweig, The Wall Street JournalEveryone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the weeks meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary peopleincluding a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancerwho set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. Theyve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. Theyve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters."In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Ladens compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesnt require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course.Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the futurewhether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily lifeand is destined to become a modern classic....1220389Superforecasting237329https://www.gandhi.com.mx/superforecasting-1/phttps://gandhi.vtexassets.com/arquivos/ids/597596/5c2698b5-d8b4-4a17-8dab-260a31e26594.jpg?v=638335450743070000InStockMXN99999DIEbook20159780804136709_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;9780804136709_W3siaWQiOiIzNzQ3NmU1MS00Y2ZkLTQ2YjEtOTk0NS1iMTk4ZjU2NjNhNDAiLCJsaXN0UHJpY2UiOjMyOSwiZGlzY291bnQiOjkyLCJzZWxsaW5nUHJpY2UiOjIzNywiaW5jbHVkZXNUYXgiOnRydWUsInByaWNlVHlwZSI6Ildob2xlc2FsZSIsImN1cnJlbmN5IjoiTVhOIiwiZnJvbSI6IjIwMjUtMDctMDlUMDU6MDA6MDBaIiwicmVnaW9uIjoiTVgiLCJpc1ByZW9yZGVyIjpmYWxzZX1d9780804136709_NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMISTThe most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahnemans Thinking, Fast and Slow.Jason Zweig, The Wall Street JournalEveryone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the weeks meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary peopleincluding a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancerwho set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. Theyve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. Theyve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are superforecasters.In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Ladens compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesnt require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course.Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the futurewhether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily lifeand is destined to become a modern classic....(*_*)9780804136709_NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMISTThe most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahnemans Thinking, Fast and Slow.Jason Zweig, The Wall Street JournalEveryone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the weeks meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary peopleincluding a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancerwho set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. Theyve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. Theyve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters."In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Ladens compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesnt require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course.Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the futurewhether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily lifeand is destined to become a modern classic....9780804136709_Crownlibro_electonico_a767ae51-5b93-3226-82fa-379476fd88aa_9780804136709;9780804136709_9780804136709Dan GardnerInglésMéxico2015-09-29T00:00:00+00:00Crown